Nvidia-OpenAI partnership

The Nvidia-OpenAI partnership is a strategic agreement announced on September 22, 2025, under which NVIDIA said it intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as OpenAI builds out a large amount of new computing capacity. The two companies described the deal as a letter of intent to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, a quantity they said would represent millions of graphics processing units. NVIDIA said it would invest progressively as each gigawatt was deployed, and that the first gigawatt would run on NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin platform in the second half of 2026.^[1][2] The letter of intent was never turned into the announced investment: NVIDIA's chief financial officer said in December 2025 that no definitive agreement had been completed, and in March 2026 chief executive Jensen Huang said the $100 billion investment was probably "not in the cards." NVIDIA did invest $30 billion in OpenAI's $110 billion funding round of February 2026, a stake that was not tied to deployment milestones.^[3][4][5][6]

The arrangement quickly became one of the most discussed examples of what critics call "circular financing" in the AI sector, the pattern in which a chip supplier invests in the customers that turn around and buy its chips. Supporters describe the structure as a normal way to fund capital-heavy infrastructure and to align a supplier with the growth of a key customer. The debate sits inside a larger argument about whether the AI industry's spending on data centers and accelerators can be sustained by the revenue those systems eventually produce.^[7][8]

On August 17, 2026, NVIDIA disclosed a separate set of residual-value guaranties supporting an OpenAI affiliate's planned tenancy under a 20-year lease at SB Energy's PORTS-Pike campus in Ohio. NVIDIA's filing described the counterparties and obligations as SB Energy lease guaranties; it did not say that this arrangement executed the 2025 letter of intent for an equity investment in OpenAI and the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems.^[9][10]

What the deal is

NVIDIA and OpenAI said NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI over time. The money was meant to be deployed in stages rather than all at once, with each piece linked to OpenAI deploying another gigawatt of NVIDIA-based computing. In total the companies pointed to at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI's next generation of AI infrastructure, which they said would amount to millions of GPUs.^[1] Huang told CNBC that 10 gigawatts was equal to between 4 million and 5 million GPUs.^[7]

In the announcement, the companies said OpenAI would work with NVIDIA as a "preferred strategic compute and networking partner" for its AI factory growth plans, and that the first gigawatt of capacity would use the Vera Rubin platform, NVIDIA's planned successor to its Blackwell generation. The first gigawatt was targeted for the second half of 2026.^[1] NVIDIA said in May 2026 that Vera Rubin was ramping into full production, with production shipments set to begin that fall.^[11]

NVIDIA founder and chief executive Jensen Huang said in the announcement that the company's work with OpenAI had run for about a decade, from early DGX supercomputers through the launch of ChatGPT, and that the new investment and infrastructure partnership would help power "the next era of intelligence." OpenAI co-founder and chief executive Sam Altman said that "everything starts with compute" and that compute infrastructure would be "the basis for the economy of the future."^[1]

Structure and timing

A central feature of the announcement is that it was a letter of intent rather than a finished, binding contract. NVIDIA said it would invest progressively as each gigawatt was deployed, and the companies said they would finalize the details in the coming weeks.^[1][2] Reports on how the first money would flow differed. Reuters, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported that NVIDIA would invest an initial $10 billion once the companies reached a definitive agreement for OpenAI to purchase NVIDIA systems, and that the investment would take the form of non-voting shares in OpenAI. CNBC's source said the first $10 billion would be deployed when the first gigawatt was completed, and CNBC later reported that the funding would be in cash, most of which OpenAI would use to lease NVIDIA chips.^[12][7][13]

That milestone-based design is the source of much of the discussion about the deal. Because the funding was tied to deployment, the headline figure of $100 billion was a ceiling that depended on OpenAI actually building and powering the systems over a multi-year period, not a sum that changed hands at signing. NVIDIA shares rose almost 4% on the day of the announcement.^[7]

The table below summarizes the main figures the companies and reporters cited, with the caveat that several were described as targets or as subject to definitive agreements.

Sources for the table: NVIDIA and OpenAI announcements, contemporaneous reporting and later reporting.^{[1][2][7][12][6][5]}

How it fits OpenAI's compute buildout

The NVIDIA deal was one part of a much larger set of computing commitments OpenAI made across 2025. The anchor is Stargate, a data-center program OpenAI announced in January 2025 alongside SoftBank, Oracle, and the investment firm MGX. OpenAI said the project intended to invest $500 billion over four years in AI infrastructure in the United States, with $100 billion deploying in an initial phase, and it named Arm, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle as technology partners.^[14] The first flagship site is the Abilene data center in Texas.

OpenAI also signed or expanded compute deals with several other suppliers in the same period. The pattern in these agreements is that OpenAI commits to large amounts of capacity, and in some cases the supplier takes on equity exposure to OpenAI's growth.

Sources: company announcements and press reporting for AMD, Broadcom, Oracle and Amazon.^{[15][16][17][18][19][5]}

In October 2025, Advanced Micro Devices and OpenAI announced a partnership for OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over multiple years, starting with 1 gigawatt of AMD Instinct MI450 chips in the second half of 2026. As part of that deal AMD issued OpenAI a warrant to buy up to 160 million AMD shares, vesting as deployment and share-price milestones were met, a stake that could reach about 10 percent of AMD if fully exercised.^[15] Days later, OpenAI and Broadcom said they would co-develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators that OpenAI designs, with racks scaled using Broadcom Ethernet networking, deploying from the second half of 2026 through the end of 2029.^[16] Broadcom said in September 2026 that it had shipped OpenAI's first custom accelerator, which it called Jalapeno, and that 1.3 gigawatts of it were planned for deployment in 2027.^[20] Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported in September 2025 that OpenAI agreed to buy roughly $300 billion of computing power from Oracle over about five years starting in 2027.^[17][18] OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank said later that month that the July 2025 agreement with Oracle for up to 4.5 gigawatts of Stargate capacity represented a partnership exceeding $300 billion over the next five years.^[19] In February 2026 OpenAI also agreed to use about 2 gigawatts of capacity built on Amazon's Trainium chips, alongside a $50 billion investment from Amazon.^[5]

Taken together, these commitments implied tens of gigawatts of planned capacity and, by various estimates, more than a trillion dollars of future spending obligations. In November 2025 Altman put OpenAI's commitments at about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years, and the gap between OpenAI's revenue at the time and its forward commitments became one of the reasons the NVIDIA deal drew scrutiny.^[21]

The circular-financing concern

The label "circular financing" describes a loop in which money flows from a supplier to a customer and then back to the supplier as a purchase. In this case, NVIDIA would invest in OpenAI, and OpenAI would direct a large share of its resources toward NVIDIA systems. Critics argue that this kind of structure can flatter demand, because some of the buyer's purchasing power originates with the seller, and can make it harder for outside observers to judge how much underlying, independent demand exists.^[7][8]

Several analysts said as much in the days after the announcement. Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein wrote that the deal would "clearly fuel 'circular' concerns." Jay Goldberg of Seaport Global Securities said the deal carried a whiff of circular financing and was emblematic of "bubble-like behavior," compared it to "having your parents co-sign on your first mortgage," and later described NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI as "very murky."^[8][22][23] Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson said the AI ecosystem had "a healthy part and an unhealthy part," the unhealthy part marked by "related-party transactions" that can artificially prop up the value of the companies involved.^[24] The investor Michael Burry, known for betting against the 2000s housing market and by late 2025 betting against NVIDIA, likened NVIDIA to Cisco at the peak of the dot-com boom, writing "It is clearly Cisco."^[25] The short seller Jim Chanos, who thought the comparison between NVIDIA and Lucent bore weight, told Yahoo Finance: "They're putting money into money-losing companies in order for those companies to order their chips." Lucent had lent to telecom customers that used the money to buy its equipment around 2000.^[26]

Supporters and the companies themselves pushed back on the framing. Bernstein's Rasgon had noted that NVIDIA said the OpenAI investment would not be used for any "direct purchases" of NVIDIA products.^[22] Asked about the criticism on the BG2 podcast, Huang said OpenAI "is likely going to be the next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company, and who doesn't want to be an investor in that?"^[23] In November 2025 NVIDIA circulated a memo to analysts arguing that its strategic investments were a small fraction of its revenue and that AI developers raised most of their capital from outside investors, and KED Global reported that the company put the share of its revenue from companies in which it held stakes at 3% to 7%.^[25][27] Rasgon, despite flagging the circular concern, told Yahoo Finance he could argue there was "no better use of Nvidia's cash right now."^[23] OpenAI chief financial officer Sarah Friar said the larger issue was that "there's not enough compute," and that as the business grew OpenAI would be "more than capable of paying for what is in our future."^[13]

It is worth distinguishing two things that the "circular" label can blur. A supplier investing equity in a customer is common across industries and is not by itself improper. The sharper concern raised by critics is round-tripping, in which revenue is effectively manufactured by funding one's own customers, which can mislead investors about true demand. Reporting on the NVIDIA deal noted the circular structure but did not establish that the arrangement crossed into improper accounting, and the deal was disclosed publicly rather than hidden.^[7][25]

Analysts and the sustainability debate

The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal landed in the middle of a wider argument about whether AI capital spending can be sustained. Through 2025, the largest cloud companies raised their capital-expenditure plans sharply to build AI data centers, and questions grew about how quickly that spending would turn into profit. This is the heart of the AI capex discussion and a major thread in talk of a possible AI bubble.^[24]

Skeptics pointed to the size of OpenAI's commitments relative to its revenue. In November 2025, Altman wrote that OpenAI expected to end the year above $20 billion in annualized revenue and was looking at about $1.4 trillion of commitments over the next eight years, a gap critics found hard to reconcile.^[21] Days earlier, when podcast host Brad Gerstner raised reports that OpenAI's revenue was about $13 billion against more than $1 trillion of computing commitments, Altman said the company was doing "well more revenue than that" and offered to find Gerstner a buyer if he wanted to sell his shares.^[28] Altman had earlier acknowledged that parts of the AI market looked overheated, saying that "when bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth" and that "someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money," while maintaining that the technology would deliver large long-run value.^[29][30]

Optimists countered that compute demand had consistently outrun supply, that frontier models kept finding new commercial uses, and that staged, milestone-based deals like the NVIDIA one were a reasonable way to fund growth while limiting downside. They noted that the NVIDIA investment was capped and conditional, so it scaled with actual deployment rather than committing the full sum up front.^[1][25] Both camps tended to agree that the scale of spending made the sector's economics unusually sensitive to whether AI products generate durable revenue.

Subsequent developments

In the months after the announcement, the partnership stayed at the letter-of-intent stage. NVIDIA's November 2025 quarterly report said only that it had entered into a letter of intent with an opportunity to invest in OpenAI, a disclosure CNBC later described as a sign that the deal might not come to fruition, and on December 2, 2025 chief financial officer Colette Kress said, "We still haven't completed a definitive agreement."^[31][4][3] On January 30, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that the investment plan had stalled after some inside NVIDIA expressed doubts about the deal. Huang called a related suggestion that he was unhappy with OpenAI "nonsense," and later described the original $100 billion figure as "never a commitment," saying OpenAI had invited NVIDIA to invest up to that amount and that NVIDIA would proceed "one step at a time." Asked whether the first gigawatt was on schedule, he said "it's up to OpenAI."^[32] NVIDIA's annual report, filed on February 25, 2026, said the company was finalizing an investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI and that there was no assurance a transaction would be completed.^[33]

On February 27, 2026, OpenAI announced a $110 billion funding round that included $30 billion from NVIDIA, $30 billion from SoftBank and $50 billion from Amazon. Reuters reported that it was not immediately clear whether NVIDIA's investment replaced the earlier pledge of up to $100 billion.^[5] Unlike the September 2025 plan, the $30 billion was not tied to deployment milestones, and as part of the round OpenAI said it had secured 3 gigawatts of dedicated inference capacity and 2 gigawatts of training capacity on Vera Rubin systems.^[4] On March 4, Huang said the $30 billion "might be the last time" NVIDIA invested in OpenAI before a public offering, and that the opportunity to invest $100 billion was probably "not in the cards."^[4] OpenAI confidentially filed for an initial public offering in June 2026, and CNBC reported in July that the up to $100 billion investment had never materialized.^[6] The companies continued to describe their commercial relationship as intact even as the headline investment figure changed.^[32][4]

Vera Rubin deliveries

The first gigawatt of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI had been targeted for the second half of 2026.^[1] On July 21, 2026, NVIDIA said Vera Rubin was in full production and that systems were shipping to customers including OpenAI, and Bloomberg reported that OpenAI planned to adopt Vera Rubin at scale during the third quarter.^[34] In late August, NVIDIA said it was preparing for the introduction of Vera Rubin in its fiscal third quarter, which ends in late October 2026.^[35]

PORTS-Pike lease support

On August 17, 2026, NVIDIA entered into multiple residual-value guaranties with SB Energy covering leases for approximately 4.25 gigawatts of aggregate IT load at the PORTS Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio. An OpenAI Group PBC affiliate is the tenant. Each guaranty generally becomes effective when the corresponding lease starts, and NVIDIA's payment obligations are subject to conditions that include SB Energy meeting ready-for-service requirements. The first capacity is expected to become ready in 2028. NVIDIA's cumulative payment exposure under the initial agreements is capped at $105 billion.^[9] The announcement followed reports in late July 2026, first by The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by CNBC, that OpenAI and NVIDIA were discussing a backstop of up to $250 billion for a 10-gigawatt campus in Pike County; CNBC's source said the guarantee under discussion would cover the lease and construction debt but not the NVIDIA chips, which were being negotiated separately.^[6]

The guaranties do not require NVIDIA to pay OpenAI's rent in the ordinary course. They can be triggered by an OpenAI insolvency that causes a lease default or by OpenAI's failure to make lease payments. NVIDIA would then generally pay the shortfall between a contractually defined minimum lease value and what SB Energy recovers through a replacement lease or sale. Following a trigger, NVIDIA may assume the lease, require SB Energy to seek a replacement tenant, initiate a sale process, allow the lease to terminate, or defer exercising those remedies for up to one year while covering specified project-agreement costs. OpenAI agreed to reimburse and indemnify NVIDIA for amounts NVIDIA actually pays under the guaranties. The obligations can end before the twentieth anniversary if OpenAI terminates a lease as permitted, reaches a satisfactory credit rating, or another customary termination event occurs.^[9]

OpenAI said it had agreed to secure approximately 8 IT-GW at the site under a 20-year lease, with SB Energy building, owning, and operating the data center. NVIDIA is the exclusive AI compute infrastructure provider, and the initial 4.25 IT-GW is planned around its DSX platform. The 8-K gives NVIDIA sole discretion to provide credit support for approximately another 3.8 GW, which the public announcement rounded to 3.75 IT-GW. OpenAI will begin paying as completed capacity becomes available. It expects an initial 800 megawatts in 2028, while later phases remain dependent on power and transmission infrastructure, permits, environmental review, and financing.^[9][10][36] NVIDIA also announced a separate $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy.^[10]

In a same-day blog post, Huang estimated that each generation of NVIDIA systems at the initial 4.25-GW deployment could represent approximately 1.5 million GPUs and $150 billion to $200 billion in NVIDIA revenue. He also put OpenAI's existing and planned commitments for NVIDIA deployments at approximately 12 GW, potentially 16 GW if NVIDIA takes the remaining PORTS-Pike capacity, and described that as roughly $600 billion of NVIDIA compute through 2030. These were NVIDIA management estimates of a commercial opportunity, not obligations or contracted revenue reported in the 8-K.^[9][37]

The PORTS-Pike documents describe an infrastructure and credit-support arrangement with SB Energy. They do not state that it executes, replaces, or otherwise resolves the September 2025 letter of intent. The $105 billion figure is a cap on conditional residual-value guaranty payments to SB Energy, not a new investment in OpenAI or an advance purchase of NVIDIA hardware. The Form 8-K said the complete guaranty forms would be filed with NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, so some terms had not yet been published on the announcement date.^[9] That quarterly report, filed on August 26, 2026, counted the $105 billion within a total maximum gross guarantee exposure of $108.5 billion and said the guarantees would take effect as each of nine phases of construction was completed, the first expected in NVIDIA's fiscal year 2029.^[38] Independent coverage noted that the structure renewed the circular-financing debate because NVIDIA is both the exclusive compute provider and a contingent guarantor. Huang rejected that characterization, arguing that OpenAI remains responsible for the lease payments.^[37][39]

Significance for the AI compute economy

The NVIDIA-OpenAI partnership matters less for any single dollar figure than for what it signaled about how AI infrastructure is being financed. It was announced as a multi-year, milestone-linked investment tying the most valuable chipmaker to the most prominent AI developer, and it became a reference point for similar deals that followed with AMD, Broadcom, and cloud providers, as well as for a related Nvidia-Microsoft partnership.^[15][16]

For NVIDIA, the deal helped secure a flagship customer for its next-generation Vera Rubin systems and extended a relationship that runs back to OpenAI's early research. For OpenAI, it added a large potential funding source and supply commitment to a buildout that already spanned Stargate and deals with multiple vendors. For the broader market, it crystallized a question that remained open at the time of the announcement, which is whether the web of investments and purchase commitments among AI suppliers and developers reflects genuine, independent demand or a more fragile, self-reinforcing cycle. The fate of the original $100 billion pledge, which was followed by a $30 billion equity investment and later by lease guarantees, became part of that debate rather than a resolution of it.^[7][21][4]

See also

• NVIDIA
• OpenAI
• Stargate Project
• AMD-OpenAI strategic partnership
• Nvidia-Microsoft partnership
• AI capex
• AI bubble

References

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